Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 01 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
Italy 12428 (+837) 105792 (+4053) 15729 (+1109) 77635 (+2107)
Spain 8464 (+748) 95923 (+7967) 19259 (+2479) 68200 (+4740)
United States 3850 (+702) 187321 (+24126) 6461 (+1060) 177010 (+22364)
France 3523 (+499) 52128 (+7578) 9444 (+1517) 39161 (+5562)
United Kingdom 1789 (+381) 25150 (+3009) 135 (+0) 23226 (+2628)
Belgium 705 (+192) 12775 (+876) 1696 (+169) 10374 (+515)
Netherlands 1039 (+175) 12595 (+845) 250 (+0) 11306 (+670)
Iran 2898 (+141) 44605 (+3110) 14656 (+745) 27051 (+2224)
Germany 775 (+130) 71808 (+4923) 16100 (+2600) 54933 (+2193)
Switzerland 433 (+74) 16605 (+683) 1823 (+0) 14349 (+609)
Turkey 214 (+46) 13531 (+2704) 243 (+81) 13074 (+2577)
Brazil 201 (+38) 5717 (+1087) 127 (+7) 5389 (+1042)
Sweden 180 (+34) 4435 (+407) 16 (+0) 4239 (+373)
Portugal 160 (+20) 7443 (+1035) 43 (+0) 7240 (+1015)
Austria 128 (+20) 10180 (+562) 1095 (+459) 8957 (+83)
Ireland 71 (+17) 3235 (+325) 5 (+0) 3159 (+308)
Romania 82 (+17) 2245 (+136) 220 (+11) 1943 (+108)
Ecuador 79 (+17) 2302 (+336) 58 (+55) 2165 (+264)
Indonesia 136 (+14) 1528 (+114) 81 (+6) 1311 (+94)
Denmark 90 (+13) 2860 (+283) 1 (+0) 2769 (+270)
Canada 101 (+12) 8591 (+1143) 1242 (+149) 7248 (+982)
Philippines 88 (+10) 2084 (+538) 49 (+7) 1947 (+521)
Dominican Republic 51 (+9) 1109 (+208) 5 (+1) 1053 (+198)
Algeria 44 (+9) 716 (+132) 46 (+9) 626 (+114)
Mexico 28 (+8) 1094 (+101) 35 (+0) 1031 (+93)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 38790 (+4319) 775334 (+72897) 101089 (+11889)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 46981 ( +6359) 935105 ( +115525) 120811 ( +17410)
Thu 02 April 2020 54335 ( +7354) 1066914 ( +131809) 141153 ( +20342)
Fri 03 April 2020 62840 ( +8505) 1217302 ( +150388) 164919 ( +23767)
Sat 04 April 2020 72676 ( +9836) 1388888 ( +171586) 192688 ( +27768)
Sun 05 April 2020 84052 ( +11376) 1584660 ( +195772) 225132 ( +32444)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 3305 (+1) 81518 (+48) 76052 (+352)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 3243 ( +0) 80955 ( +0) 74575 ( +112)
Thu 02 April 2020 3244 ( +0) 80955 ( +0) 74672 ( +97)
Fri 03 April 2020 3244 ( +0) 80955 ( +0) 74756 ( +84)
Sat 04 April 2020 3244 ( +0) 80955 ( +0) 74830 ( +73)
Sun 05 April 2020 3244 ( +0) 80955 ( +0) 74893 ( +64)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 8464 (+748) 95923 (+7967) 19259 (+2479)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 9083 ( +655) 102000 ( +6492) 25528 ( +4914)
Thu 02 April 2020 9642 ( +559) 107813 ( +5813) 31614 ( +6086)
Fri 03 April 2020 10108 ( +465) 112916 ( +5103) 39151 ( +7537)
Sat 04 April 2020 10485 ( +378) 117320 ( +4404) 48485 ( +9334)
Sun 05 April 2020 10787 ( +301) 121066 ( +3745) 60044 ( +11559)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 12428 (+837) 105792 (+4053) 15729 (+1109)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 12852 ( +615) 108730 ( +3475) 19003 ( +2078)
Thu 02 April 2020 13404 ( +553) 111796 ( +3067) 21337 ( +2333)
Fri 03 April 2020 13895 ( +490) 114479 ( +2682) 23957 ( +2620)
Sat 04 April 2020 14325 ( +430) 116808 ( +2329) 26898 ( +2942)
Sun 05 April 2020 14698 ( +374) 118816 ( +2008) 30201 ( +3303)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 3850 (+702) 187321 (+24126) 6461 (+1060)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 5014 ( +1054) 241622 ( +42091) 9432 ( +2437)
Thu 02 April 2020 6348 ( +1334) 292593 ( +50971) 12718 ( +3287)
Fri 03 April 2020 8037 ( +1688) 354316 ( +61723) 17150 ( +4432)
Sat 04 April 2020 10174 ( +2138) 429060 ( +74744) 23126 ( +5976)
Sun 05 April 2020 12880 ( +2706) 519571 ( +90511) 31185 ( +8058)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 3523 (+499) 52128 (+7578) 9444 (+1517)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 4443 ( +737) 54963 ( +4506) 12301 ( +2174)
Thu 02 April 2020 5327 ( +884) 59377 ( +4414) 14941 ( +2640)
Fri 03 April 2020 6387 ( +1060) 63632 ( +4254) 18148 ( +3207)
Sat 04 April 2020 7659 ( +1271) 67668 ( +4036) 22042 ( +3895)
Sun 05 April 2020 9183 ( +1524) 71441 ( +3773) 26773 ( +4731)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 2898 (+141) 44605 (+3110) 14656 (+745)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 2894 ( +75) 49735 ( +4024) 16984 ( +1417)
Thu 02 April 2020 2959 ( +65) 54113 ( +4378) 18530 ( +1546)
Fri 03 April 2020 3015 ( +56) 58877 ( +4764) 20217 ( +1687)
Sat 04 April 2020 3063 ( +48) 64060 ( +5183) 22057 ( +1841)
Sun 05 April 2020 3104 ( +41) 69700 ( +5640) 24066 ( +2008)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 775 (+130) 71808 (+4923) 16100 (+2600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 1003 ( +201) 76406 ( +4450) 21924 ( +5106)
Thu 02 April 2020 1254 ( +251) 80373 ( +3966) 28580 ( +6656)
Fri 03 April 2020 1568 ( +314) 83846 ( +3473) 37257 ( +8677)
Sat 04 April 2020 1961 ( +393) 86841 ( +2995) 48569 ( +11312)
Sun 05 April 2020 2452 ( +491) 89389 ( +2548) 63315 ( +14746)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 1789 (+381) 25150 (+3009) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 2237 ( +433) 31402 ( +4912) 188 ( +16)
Thu 02 April 2020 2773 ( +536) 37224 ( +5823) 205 ( +17)
Fri 03 April 2020 3438 ( +665) 44127 ( +6902) 224 ( +19)
Sat 04 April 2020 4262 ( +824) 52309 ( +8182) 245 ( +21)
Sun 05 April 2020 5284 ( +1022) 62008 ( +9699) 268 ( +23)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 180 (+34) 4435 (+407) 16 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 193 ( +21) 4586 ( +284) 16 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 213 ( +20) 4864 ( +278) 16 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 230 ( +17) 5133 ( +269) 16 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 245 ( +15) 5392 ( +259) 16 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 258 ( +12) 5638 ( +246) 16 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 1039 (+175) 12595 (+845) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 1316 ( +234) 13698 ( +959) 250 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 1601 ( +284) 14588 ( +890) 250 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 1946 ( +346) 15399 ( +810) 250 ( +0)
Sat 04 April 2020 2367 ( +420) 16125 ( +726) 250 ( +0)
Sun 05 April 2020 2878 ( +511) 16765 ( +640) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 33 (+2) 2311 (+256) 7 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 39 ( +6) 2491 ( +204) nan ( +nan)
Thu 02 April 2020 47 ( +7) 2681 ( +191) nan ( +nan)
Fri 03 April 2020 55 ( +8) 2855 ( +174) nan ( +nan)
Sat 04 April 2020 65 ( +10) 3011 ( +155) nan ( +nan)
Sun 05 April 2020 77 ( +12) 3147 ( +136) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 433 (+74) 16605 (+683) 1823 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 481 ( +59) 16932 ( +528) 2853 ( +635)
Thu 02 April 2020 541 ( +60) 17365 ( +433) 3669 ( +817)
Fri 03 April 2020 601 ( +60) 17716 ( +351) 4720 ( +1051)
Sat 04 April 2020 659 ( +59) 17997 ( +281) 6071 ( +1351)
Sun 05 April 2020 715 ( +56) 18221 ( +224) 7809 ( +1738)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 31 March 2020 705 (+192) 12775 (+876) 1696 (+169)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 01 April 2020 887 ( +190) 14805 ( +1585) 2281 ( +429)
Thu 02 April 2020 1129 ( +242) 16397 ( +1592) 2809 ( +528)
Fri 03 April 2020 1438 ( +309) 17961 ( +1564) 3460 ( +651)
Sat 04 April 2020 1831 ( +393) 19465 ( +1504) 4262 ( +802)
Sun 05 April 2020 2332 ( +501) 20881 ( +1416) 5249 ( +988)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.